On Sunday, November 23, 2025, the college football landscape shifted dramatically as Week 13 results and betting lines converged to redefine the College Football Playoff picture. The Oregon Ducks were heavy favorites over USC Trojans at -9.5, but analysts weren’t just betting on the spread—they were betting on Whittington, the running back averaging 8.2 yards per carry, who could tear apart USC’s porous run defense. Meanwhile, the Miami Hurricanes didn’t just win—they announced themselves as serious title contenders with a 34-17 road victory over Virginia Tech Hokies, jumping to No. 12 in the Bleacher Report rankings. And with their next game against the Pittsburgh Panthers looming, Miami’s playoff hopes now hang by a thread—and a single win.
How Oregon’s Run Game Could Break USC
Cody Nagel of CBS Sports didn’t just predict Oregon would cover the 9.5-point spread—he insisted they’d cover 10.5. Why? Because Whittington isn’t just fast. He’s efficient. With 60+ carries and an FBS-leading 8.2 yards per rush, he’s the kind of weapon that turns defensive schemes into rubble. USC’s front seven had been vulnerable all season, allowing an average of 215 rushing yards per game. But against Oregon, they’ll face a team that doesn’t just run—it dominates the clock. The Ducks averaged 38 minutes of possession last week. If they control the tempo, USC’s high-powered offense won’t get enough snaps to catch up. The line moved slightly after Oregon’s 45-10 win over Washington State, but oddsmakers still see this as a trap game. They’re wrong.Miami’s Rise and the Pittsburgh Trap
The Miami Hurricanes didn’t just win at Virginia Tech—they announced a new identity. Quarterback Carson Beck threw for 320 yards and four touchdowns, with freshman Malachi Toney hauling in 12 catches for 146 yards. That’s not luck. That’s chemistry. Miami’s defense, once shaky, held Virginia Tech to 17 points despite the Hokies’ run-heavy approach. But here’s the twist: their next game isn’t against a rebuilding team. It’s at Pittsburgh Panthers, a team that beat Clemson earlier this season and plays with a chip on its shoulder. CBS Sports called it a “must-win.” ESPN’s playoff projection model gives Miami a 68% chance to make the top 12 if they win. Lose? Their season ends in December with no bowl game, let alone a national title shot.Vanderbilt’s Heisman Candidate and the Tennessee Showdown
While Miami and Oregon grabbed headlines, Vanderbilt Commodores quietly turned heads. Quarterback Diego Pavia threw for 484 yards and rushed for 48 more in a 45-17 demolition of Kentucky. Six total touchdowns. That’s Heisman-level production. And yet—he’s still not on most ballots. Why? Because Vanderbilt isn’t a traditional powerhouse. But if they beat Tennessee Volunteers on November 29, they’ll finish 10-2. That’s a resume that can’t be ignored. Analysts say Pavia’s stats are comparable to 2023 Heisman finalist Jayden Daniels—but without the national spotlight. A win in Knoxville could change that. And it might be the difference between a New Year’s Six bowl and a New Year’s Day celebration.
Ohio State, Indiana, and the Georgia Wildcard
The top three in ESPN’s playoff projections remain unchanged: Ohio State Buckeyes (11-0), Indiana Hoosiers (11-0), and Texas A&M Aggies (11-0). But the real drama is behind them. The Georgia Bulldogs (10-1) are lurking. They lost to Alabama, sure—but ESPN analysts point out that Georgia’s loss was “slightly better” than Texas A&M’s loss to Texas. Why? Georgia beat Texas in the regular season. Texas A&M didn’t. Georgia also has wins over three ranked teams. Texas A&M has two. And Georgia’s schedule strength is rated 0.7 points higher by the NCAA’s SRS metric. If Texas A&M loses to Texas on November 29, Georgia jumps to No. 3. And if they beat Georgia Tech in their final game? They’re in. The committee doesn’t just look at records. They look at quality.Rivalry Week: The Final Arbiter
The next two weeks aren’t just games. They’re verdicts. November 28–29, 2025, is Rivalry Week—and it will decide who plays for the national title. Miami at Pittsburgh. Vanderbilt at Tennessee. Texas A&M at Texas. Ohio State at Ohio. Indiana at Purdue. Each game carries playoff weight. And here’s the quiet truth: no one outside the top three has a clear path anymore. It’s not about who’s undefeated anymore. It’s about who wins when it matters most. Tulane (9-2) is now ranked No. 24 after crushing Temple, but their path to the AAC title game hinges on beating Charlotte. Even if they win, they’ll likely miss the playoff. That’s the brutal math of 2025.
What the Numbers Say
- Carson Beck (Miami): 320 yards, 4 TDs vs. Virginia Tech; 28 TDs total this season
- Diego Pavia (Vanderbilt): 484 passing yards, 6 total TDs vs. Kentucky; 3,920 yards, 34 TDs on the year
- Whittington (Oregon): 8.2 YPC (FBS leader), 1,478 rushing yards, 18 TDs
- Miami’s defense allowed just 17 points to Virginia Tech—their lowest since Week 4
- Georgia’s strength of schedule: 0.7 points higher than Texas A&M’s, per NCAA SRS
What’s clear? The playoff isn’t decided by polls. It’s decided by outcomes. And the outcomes are coming fast.
Frequently Asked Questions
Can Miami still make the College Football Playoff without winning at Pittsburgh?
Unlikely. ESPN’s model gives Miami a 68% chance to enter the top 12 with a win at Pittsburgh. Without it, their resume—9-2 with a loss to LSU and a weak non-conference schedule—won’t hold up against teams like Ohio State, Indiana, or even a 10-2 Georgia. The committee values strength of schedule, and Pittsburgh’s win over Clemson gives them credibility. A loss here likely ends Miami’s season in the Sugar Bowl, not the national title game.
Why is Georgia considered a stronger candidate than Texas A&M despite having a loss?
Because Georgia beat Texas head-to-head, while Texas A&M lost to them. The playoff committee prioritizes direct competition. Georgia also has wins over three ranked teams (Alabama, Florida, South Carolina), compared to Texas A&M’s two (Oklahoma, LSU). Plus, Georgia’s schedule has a higher SRS rating. Even though both are 10-1, Georgia’s losses are viewed as more competitive—losing to Alabama in overtime is seen as more respectable than losing to a Texas team that barely beat them.
Is Diego Pavia a legitimate Heisman Trophy contender?
Absolutely—if Vanderbilt beats Tennessee. Pavia has 3,920 passing yards and 34 total touchdowns this season, numbers that rival last year’s Heisman winner. But he plays for a team that’s rarely in the national spotlight. A 10-2 finish with a win over a top-10 Tennessee squad could push him into the final three. He’s not just a stats guy—he’s a game-changer. If he throws for 400 yards and runs for two TDs in Knoxville, the Heisman committee won’t be able to ignore him.
What’s the significance of Tulane being ranked No. 24?
It’s a sign the American Athletic Conference is back. Tulane went from unranked to No. 24 after beating Temple 37-13, with Jake Retzlaff throwing three TDs and Patrick Durkin hitting two 50+ yard field goals. They’re now in control of their AAC destiny. Win against Charlotte and they’ll play for the conference title. But even if they win, they’re unlikely to make the playoff—their best win is over Temple. Still, their rise shows depth in Group of Five football and could influence future playoff expansion debates.
Why did Chip Patterson predict the under in Miami-Virginia Tech?
Because Virginia Tech’s offense is built on the run, not the pass. They average just 210 passing yards per game and have no receiver with more than 450 yards this season. Miami’s defense, while giving up big plays early, has tightened up over the last four games, allowing under 20 points in each. The over/under was set at 48.5, but the game ended at 51. Analysts were wrong—but only because Miami’s offense exploded. Still, the prediction was sound: when a run-heavy team plays a defense that’s improved in the red zone, low scoring is the norm. This game was the exception.
What’s the most critical game left in the 2025 season?
Texas A&M at Texas. If Texas wins, Georgia jumps to No. 3 and likely claims the final playoff spot. If Texas A&M wins, they stay at No. 3 and hold off Georgia. But beyond that, it’s Miami at Pittsburgh. A loss there eliminates the Hurricanes from playoff contention. No other game has a single outcome that can erase an entire season’s work in 60 minutes. That’s the pressure of 2025’s playoff race.
